NVIDIA Appraisal

NVIDIA flagships used to come about two years apart and now come under a year apart: H100 in late 2022, H200 in mid 2024, B200 in early 2025, B300 in late 2025, Rubin in the second half of 2026. Each new flagship steps down the residual of the last.

That is why we value on technology age: the years since a generation first shipped, not since a server was bought.

In 1979 IBM cut its entry mainframe price 69%, from $233,900 to $71,650, and the used market repriced overnight; lessors who had booked aggressive residuals failed. NVIDIA holds a similar share and margin.

Our report estimates that if NVIDIA cut list prices to roughly a 10% premium over AMD's MI-series, taking gross margin from 75% to about 65%, GPU residuals could slip about 29%. We rank NVIDIA margin compression as a high-likelihood adverse event and show it in appraisals as a stress case.